Apple Earnings: Lack Of Bad News Is Great News


Despite all a challenges, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) managed to broach a plain all-around kick for mercantile 2Q20. Revenues of $58.3 billion augmenting minimally YOY, when accord estimates forked during a rather pointy 6% contraction. EPS of $2.55 also impressed, commanding accord by scarcely 30 cents. we estimate, however, that below-the-op line equipment (e.g. a some-more auspicious taxation rate) accounted for about one-fourth of a gain surprise.

At slightest so distant in 2020, Apple has been handling a COVID-related issues well. This is not to say, however, that a third mercantile quarter, traditionally a slower duration for device sales, will be a travel in a park for a Cupertino-based company.

Apple (a href='' title='Apple Inc.'AAPL/a) managed to broach a plain all-around kick for mercantile 2Q20. Image credit

A discerning peek during a results

In my gain preview, we listed a 3 equipment of contention that we deliberate many important: (1) iPhone sales dynamics, (2) a impact of a predicament on use revenues, and (3) collateral allocation plans.

On a initial object above, a smartphone business positively did not do many to boost financial performance. Sure, sales surfaced expectations by an inch. But a scarcely 7% YOY decrease suggests that supply sequence disruptions, store closures, and a decrease in direct for cost inclination during times of mercantile trouble served as suggestive headwinds.

The improved news is that a government group reported a healthy channel register exiting a quarter. Also, prolongation and a supply sequence seem to have returned to normal, while a reopening of tellurian economies should support Apple store sales going brazen – generally in Greater China, where revenues forsaken 7.5% YOY. The new iPhone SE has been reported to have clever demand, nonetheless Apr numbers were (unsurprisingly) not provided.


Source: DM Martins Research, regulating information from association reports

On a second subject of discussion, we was agreeably astounded to see use revenues stand roughly undisturbed. The 17% expansion rate was really many in line with final quarter’s metric, notwithstanding a shred carrying gained utterly a bit of scale over a past few years. Apple is good forward of a devise of doubling 2016 use revenues by 2020 (see draft below), with paid subscriptions adult over 100 million YOY to some-more than half a billion today. This bodes really good for my investment thesis, that leans heavily on a business transition from one-off device sales to a some-more stable, mostly recurring-revenue model.

Lastly, Apple’s change piece remained healthy, to contend a least. Cash upsurge from operations for a entertain was $2.2 billion aloft YOY (up scarcely 20%) notwithstanding all a challenges, that we find impressive. As a result, Apple confirmed a collateral allocation plans, augmenting division payments by 6%. The association also announced $50 billion in additional share repurchases when many other companies have been crude their buyback efforts. This number, however, might have been a bit reduce than what some analysts were expecting.

Apple is good forward of a devise of doubling 2016 use revenues by 2020Source: DM Martins Research, regulating information from mixed association reports

No change to a investment thesis

Apple was incompetent to evasion a COVID-19 bullet in a second mercantile quarter, though analysts and investors positively did not design them to. The dual commission indicate vigour to share cost in after-hours trade was almost improved contemplative of profit-taking moves (the batch had been adult about 20% for a month) and reduction demonstrative of variable troubles ahead.

In a end, we trust that miss of almost disastrous news on gain day can be deliberate good news. Apple appears to be good positioned to continue a stream health and mercantile predicament (e.g. clever change sheet, plain money flow), though also to miscarry once a macro-level army are some-more favorable.

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Disclosure: I am/we are prolonged AAPL. I wrote this essay myself, and it expresses my possess opinions. we am not receiving remuneration for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). we have no business attribute with any association whose batch is mentioned in this article.

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